The drive for indigenization is familiar to South Korea, which began the XK2 program in 1995 as an effort to distance the Korean tank program from U.S.-derivative platforms. For Warsaw, the Korean deal meant getting tanks much faster than Germany’s Rheinmetall would be able to supply, and at a competitive price point, but it also delivered on Polish desires for technology transfer to enhance its own domestic defense industry. These will be built to Polish specification under the designation K2PL, with the first 180 tanks to be later upgraded to the K2PL standard. Of the total number of tanks, 180 will be built in South Korea between 20, with domestic production capability coming online in Poland by 2026 for the remaining 820. South Korea’s Hyundai Rotem and Hanwha Defense won immense arms contracts with Poland in 2022, which included a deal for 1,000 K2 main battle tanks and 672 K9 self-propelled howitzers. However, there is another planned tank production line in Europe. But there aren’t any other hot European tank production lines in Europe, making Leopard tank variants the only option in town.
And the Franco-German plan to develop a replacement for both the French Leclerc main battle tank and the Leopard 2 seems destined to be dragged down by stultified bureaucracy, making their planned Main Ground Combat System an unattractive prospect to hang nations’ future force structures upon. Operators of the Leopard 2, particularly those facing a Russian threat at their doorsteps, are questioning the wisdom of dependence on Berlin for a key element of their ground forces after witnessing the last few weeks of buffoonery. While Germany has long been a defense acquisition partner for its European neighbors, this episode has shaken the confidence of its customers, creating the impression that Berlin’s confused defense policy and weak leadership are strategic liabilities and encouraging them to explore other options for defense hardware. Relenting after prolonged prevarication has only made the German government look indecisive and unwilling to lead even in matters of European security.
Germany remains the fourth-largest donor to Ukraine’s defense, but Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s dithering over the transfer of Leopard 2 tanks, the standard main battle tank for most of Europe, is still dominating headlines even after his government agreed to send them.
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